In its 2025-Q1 forecast, Dodge Construction Network assumed the tariff rate in the US would increase from 3% to 10% by the end of the year. The effective tariff rate is now expected to reach 12% by Q4.

Material cost increases due to the tariffs will be the most immediate risk to the construction industry. Goods from Canada, Mexico, and China make up about 41% of US imports and the industry will face higher input costs if producers cannot find alternative products. Steel and aluminum prices will be affected; however, US steel mills and aluminum smelters could stand to benefit from the tariffs. Semiconductor facilities will also feel most of the immediate price burden. Other materials that could be affected include lumber, copper, gypsum, iron and steel.

Despite the economic risks, Dodge Construction Network is forecasting a 10% growth in construction starts this year. Read more here >>